{"id":48760,"date":"2024-01-15T22:47:42","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T21:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/?p=48760"},"modified":"2024-01-15T22:47:43","modified_gmt":"2024-01-15T21:47:43","slug":"impacts-des-tensions-en-mer-rouge-sur-le-commerce-mondial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/index.php\/2024\/01\/15\/impacts-des-tensions-en-mer-rouge-sur-le-commerce-mondial\/","title":{"rendered":"Impacts des tensions en mer Rouge sur le commerce mondial"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Professeur Abderrahmane Mebtoul<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expert international<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les tensions en mer Rouge, qui est une \u00ab autoroute de la mer \u00bb reliant la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019oc\u00e9an Indien, et donc l\u2019Europe \u00e0 l\u2019Asie, en cas d\u2019extension du conflit en Palestine, risquent d\u2019avoir un impact sur l\u2019\u00e9volution du cours des hydrocarbures. Pr\u00e8s de 12 % du commerce mondial passe par la mer Rouge avec pr\u00e8s de 30% des volumes de conteneurs, les p\u00e9troliers transitant par la mer Rouge repr\u00e9sentent entre 12 et 14% du trafic maritime mondial, mais c\u2019est le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz contr\u00f4l\u00e9 par l\u2019Iran qui est la zone de transit d’hydrocarbures la plus importante au niveau international avec un flux quotidien de p\u00e9trole \u00e9valu\u00e9 \u00e0 21 millions de barils soit l’\u00e9quivalent de 21 % de la consommation mondiale en produits p\u00e9troliers qui est une route importante pour le p\u00e9trole. Les tensions en mer Rouge perturbent le commerce maritime et pousse les principales entreprises de fret \u00e0 faire un d\u00e9tour par le cap de Bonne-Esp\u00e9rance, \u00e0 l’extr\u00e9mit\u00e9 sud de l’Afrique, pour \u00e9viter le canal de Suez, entra\u00eenant des co\u00fbts plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s en raison de l’allongement de la dur\u00e9e du voyage. Cela a d\u2019abord des cons\u00e9quences sur les march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u2019est ainsi que le cours Brent a bondi jusqu’\u00e0 4% apr\u00e8s les frappes contre le Y\u00e9men \u00e0 plus de 80 dollars le baril vendredi. Mais les cours du p\u00e9trole ont baiss\u00e9. Ils sont cot\u00e9s le 15 janvier 2024 \u00e0 77,77 dollars le Brent et 72,26 dollars le WIT am\u00e9ricain. Le prix de cession du gaz sur le march\u00e9 libre est cot\u00e9 \u00e0 la mi- janvier 2024 entre 32\/35 dollars le \/MWh, o\u00f9 en France, le prix du MWh sur le march\u00e9 du PEG du 2024-01-12 est de 28.943 euros le MWh contre 33.398\u20ac\/MWh le 2023-12-27, repr\u00e9sentant une baisse de 13% et ce apr\u00e8s avoir culmin\u00e9 au d\u00e9but du conflit avec l\u2019Ukraine \u00e0 250\/300 euros le MWh. Les cours du p\u00e9trole et du gaz ont vu une bonne partie de leurs gains s\u2019effacer, le bond li\u00e9 \u00e0 la d\u00e9gradation de la situation g\u00e9opolitique au Moyen-Orient s’est essouffl\u00e9, faute d’effet direct sur l\u2019offre, les bourses n’anticipent pas pour l\u2019instant une extension du conflit .Mais selon bon nombre d\u2019observateurs, il faudra \u00eatre attentif aux \u00e9volutions g\u00e9ostrat\u00e9giques alors que 60% des grands groupes \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques sont au Moyen Orient, r\u00e9gion repr\u00e9sentant 40% des r\u00e9serves prouv\u00e9es de la plan\u00e8te et les 2\/3 des r\u00e9serves mondiales de p\u00e9trole. Un \u00e9largissement du conflit au Moyen Orient notamment de l\u2019implication de l\u2019Arabie Saoudite avec une production de 10 millions de barils\/j , de l\u2019Iran 3,4 millions de barils jour , sans compter les Emirats arabes unis, 3,7 millions barils\/j et l \u2018Irak 4,1 millions de barils\/j pourrait avoir pour cons\u00e9quence un baril de plus de 100 dollars. Cela aurait un impact sur toute l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale \u00e0 court terme mais avec un effet n\u00e9gatif \u00e0 moyen terme avec une r\u00e9cession serait plus importante, le FMI avant ces tensions pr\u00e9voyant un ralentissement de la croissance mondiale pour 2024 de 2,6 % en 2023 \u00e0 2,4 % en 2024, soit pr\u00e8s de trois quarts de point de pourcentage en dessous de la moyenne des ann\u00e9es 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019autre impact direct de ces tensions concerne le commerce international, avec une hausse des co\u00fbts. Les d\u00e9tours par le Cap de Bonne Esp\u00e9rance avec les surco\u00fbts et les primes de risque ont des cons\u00e9quences sur le transport maritime. Le nombre de navires commerciaux transitant par le Canal de Suez a recul\u00e9 de -30% et le nombre de tankers de -19%. Dans le m\u00eame temps, le commerce maritime transitant par le Cap de Bonne Esp\u00e9rance lui a quasiment doubl\u00e9, le nombre de navires commerciaux a augment\u00e9 de +66% et le nombre de tankers de +65%. Par cons\u00e9quent, nous assistons \u00e0 des prix du fret maritime plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s. R\u00e9cemment, les prix pour la principale direction de la Chine vers l\u2019Afrique, le Moyen-Orient et l\u2019Europe ont augment\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 60%, atteignant le plus haut point de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2023, avec un co\u00fbt suppl\u00e9mentaire de 1.000 \u00e0 2.000 USD pour un conteneur transitant par la r\u00e9gion europ\u00e9enne. Cela a un impact sur les co\u00fbt des produits acc\u00e9l\u00e9rant le processus inflationniste mondial. Selon Allianz Trade, une multiplication par deux des co\u00fbts du fret maritime g\u00e9n\u00e9rerait +0,7 point d’inflation en Europe et aux USA, contre +0,3 point en Chine. Pour l’inflation, cela signifierait une hausse de +0,5 point, soit 5,1% d’inflation en 2024. Cela se traduirait par un impact de -0,9 point de croissance du PIB pour l\u2019Europe et de -0,6 point pour les USA. A l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale, l\u2019impact sur la croissance du PIB serait de -0,4 point, ce qui la limiterait \u00e0 +2% pour 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques actuelles refl\u00e8tent un bouleversement mondial qui influe sur les m\u00e9thodes de gestion des \u00c9tats. Nous nous orientons vers un monde fragment\u00e9 multipolaire devant conna\u00eetre une profonde mutation, par ailleurs expos\u00e9s aux nouveaux dangers syst\u00e9miques avec les impacts du r\u00e9chauffement climatique (catastrophes naturelles, incendies, inondations, p\u00e9nuries d\u2019eau douce) et les cyberattaques. L\u2019Alg\u00e9rie doit avoir une strat\u00e9gie d\u2019adaptation, y compris \u00e0 la situation actuelle qui a un impact certains tant sur ses exportations et surtout ses importations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par Professeur Abderrahmane Mebtoul Expert international Les tensions en mer Rouge, qui est une \u00ab autoroute de la mer \u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[56,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-contribution","category-debats"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nImpacts des tensions en mer Rouge sur le commerce mondial - 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