{"id":61317,"date":"2025-01-06T11:05:42","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T10:05:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/?p=61317"},"modified":"2025-01-06T11:05:43","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T10:05:43","slug":"loi-de-finances-2025-quel-est-limpact-du-deficit-budgetaire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/index.php\/2025\/01\/06\/loi-de-finances-2025-quel-est-limpact-du-deficit-budgetaire\/","title":{"rendered":"Loi de finances 2025 : Quel est l\u2019impact du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Abderrahmane Mebtoul<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Professeur des universit\u00e9s, expert international- expert comptable de l’Institut sup\u00e9rieur de gestion de Lille <\/strong>en France<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une loi de finances est simplement un document comptable retra\u00e7ant les d\u00e9penses et les recettes d\u2019une Nation et ne saurait remplacer une planification strat\u00e9gique qui tienne compte tant des mutations internes que mondiales en perp\u00e9tuelles \u00e9volutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans une loi de finances, les cr\u00e9dits allou\u00e9s \u00e0 chaque mission ou programme du budget g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l’\u00c9tat sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s en deux colonnes, les autorisations d\u2019engagement (AE) et les cr\u00e9dits de paiement (CP). Les AE \u00ab constituent la limite sup\u00e9rieure des d\u00e9penses pouvant \u00eatre engag\u00e9es. Elles permettent d’engager des d\u00e9penses qui peuvent s’\u00e9chelonner sur plusieurs exercices \u00bb. Les CP \u00ab constituent la limite sup\u00e9rieure des d\u00e9penses pouvant \u00eatre ordonnanc\u00e9es ou pay\u00e9es pendant l’ann\u00e9e pour la couverture des engagements contract\u00e9s dans le cadre des autorisations d’engagement \u00bb. Selon la loi de finances promulgu\u00e9e dans Journal officiel num\u00e9ro 84 du 26 d\u00e9cembre 2024, le prix de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence fiscal du baril de p\u00e9trole brut retenu est de 60 dollars et le prix de march\u00e9 \u00e0 70 dollars. La croissance \u00e9conomique devrait atteindre 4,5% (2025 et 2026) . Le produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) devrait se situer \u00e0 37.863 milliards de dinars , soit 278,71 milliards de dollars, soit au cours de 135,85 dinars un dollar, alors que certaines projections \u00e9conom\u00e9triques internationales pr\u00e9voient 256,49 milliards de dollars en 2025 et 262,90 milliards de dollars en 2026. Les exportations de biens non compris les services qui entre 2020\/2023 ont atteint 5\/7 milliards de dollars, atteindraient 50,9 milliards de dollars et les importations de biens devraient se situer \u00e0 46,07 milliards de dollars. La balance commerciale devrait enregistrer un exc\u00e9dent 4,83 milliards de dollars et la balance des paiements devrait r\u00e9aliser un exc\u00e9dent de 1,17 milliard de dollars. L\u2019encours des r\u00e9serves de change atteindrait 72,95 milliards de dollars, repr\u00e9sentant 16 mois d\u2019importations de biens et services. Les recettes budg\u00e9taires devraient atteindre 8.523,06 milliards de dinars. Ci-joint la structure des d\u00e9penses et recettes ventil\u00e9es par secteurs afin de calculer le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Les d\u00e9penses<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u00e9sidence de la R\u00e9publique :  AE 68.573.110.000 dinars alg\u00e9riens- CP 74.413.914.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Services premier minist\u00e8re : AE 14.011.508.000- CP 41.730.090.000 d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e9fense nationale : AE 3.349.514.000.000 – CP 3.349.514.000.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minist\u00e8re des affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res : AE 72.179.390.000 CP 74.557.390.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energie-mines , \u00e9nergies renouvelables :AE 171.097.080.000 CP 74.557.390.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Int\u00e9rieur et collectivit\u00e9s locales : AE 1.365.834.086.000 CP 1.389.139.586.000 dont DGSN 530.537.500.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Justice : AE 168.988.258.000 CP 167.307.100.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finances : AE 3.635.807.842.000 dont tr\u00e9sor et gestion comptable 1.069.085.238.000 CP 3.633.448.042.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moudjahidine et ayant droit :AE 251.006.273.000 CP 251.643.046.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Affaires religieuses et wakfs : AE 56.644.239.000 CP 57.735.341.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enseignement sup\u00e9rieur et recherche scientifique : AE 736.385.690 dont recherche scientifique 20.9963.580.000 CP 776.032.690.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Education nationale :AE 1.645.254.921.000 dont administration g\u00e9n\u00e9rale 1.526.132.719.000 et enseignement 105.107.682.000 CP 1.716.174.921.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Formation et enseignement professionnels : AE 106.601.679.000 dont administration g\u00e9n\u00e9rale 103.384.130.000 et enseignement professionnel 84.000.000 CP 118.125.197.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Culture et arts : AE 27.981.183.000 CP 41.554.757.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeunesse :AE 31.013.694.000 CP 32.362.928.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sports : AE 83.689.173.000 CP 91.391.639.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poste et t\u00e9l\u00e9communications : AE 12.997.635.000 dont le d\u00e9veloppement des t\u00e9l\u00e9communications 38.700.000 CP 15.690.265.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solidarit\u00e9 nationale-famille-et condition de la femme : AE 243.754.297.000 dont le d\u00e9veloppement social et action humanitaire 190.074.828.000 CP 244.677.025.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industrie et production pharmaceutique : AE 8.681.505.000 dont appui \u00e0 l\u2019investissement 3.015.171.000 CP 10.762.765.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture : AE d\u00e9veloppement rural et p\u00e8che 732.283.403.000 dont agriculture et d\u00e9veloppement rural 659.205.678.000 et p\u00e8che maritime 897.125.000 CP 802.103.937.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Habitat , urbanisme et ville : AE 450.264.441.000 dont logements 261.179.240.000 CP 540.572.249.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commerce ext\u00e9rieur et promotion des exportations : AE 657.000.000 CP 657.000.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commerce int\u00e9rieur et r\u00e9gulation du march\u00e9 matinal : CP 125.092.093.000 AE 125.424.193.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Communication : AE 2.400.383.000 CP 3.800.883.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Travaux publics et infrastructure de base : AE 189.554.093.000 dont infrastructures routi\u00e8res et auto routi\u00e8res 125.004.994.000 CP 710.156.758.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hydraulique : 310.837.737.000 AE dont approvisionnement en eau potable et industrielle 150.896.113.000 CP 318.710.950.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transport : AE 42.957.226.000 CP 75.632.626.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tourisme et artisanat :AE 6.0072.591.000 dont administration g\u00e9n\u00e9rale 5.138.063.000 CP 13.721.947.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sant\u00e9 : AE 1.004.413.554.000 dont administration g\u00e9n\u00e9rale 740.638.353.000 CP 1.004.992.554.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Travail , emploi et s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale : AE 836.209.377.000 dont 353.152.179.000 syst\u00e8me de protection sociale CP 836.309.377.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relations avec le Parlement : AE 613.000.000 CP 622.000.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environnement et qualit\u00e9 de la vie : AE 6.612.290.000 dont administration g\u00e9n\u00e9rale 4.571.627.000 CP 11.141.990.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economie de la connaissance, start-up : AE 19.674.828.000 CP 19.647.828.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sous total des minist\u00e8res :AE 15.787.627.599.000 – CP 16.764.014.538.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assembl\u00e9e nationale : AE 8.000.000.000 CP 8.000.000.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil de la Nation : AE 4.100.000.000 CP 4.100.000.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cour constitutionnelle : AE 4780.540.000 CP 906.984.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sous total des portefeuilles sp\u00e9cifiques : AE 12.880.540.000 – CP 13.006.984.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cour supr\u00eame :  AE 3.884.712.000 CP 5.884.712.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil d\u2019Etat : AE 1.331.414.000 CP1.346.614.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil sup\u00e9rieur de la magistrature : AE 510.000.000 CP 310.000.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cour des comptes : AE 1.681.586.000 CP 1.654.515.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haute autorit\u00e9 de la lutte contre la corruption : AE 400.480.000 CP 450.480.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Autorit\u00e9 ind\u00e9pendante des \u00e9lections : AE 4.681.180.000 CP 4.091.180.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil national \u00e9conomique, social et environnemental : AE 887.139.000 CP 917.139.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haut conseil islamique : AE 191.205.000 CP 191.205.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil sup\u00e9rieur de la langue arabe : AE 437.396.000 CP 437.396.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil national des droit de l\u2019Homme : AE 258.540.000 CP 258.54.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acad\u00e9mie alg\u00e9rienne des sciences et des technologies : AE 284.403.000 CP 284.40.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil national de la recherche scientifique et des technologies :AE 224.472.000 CP 224.472.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observatoire national de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile : AE 424.150.000 CP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conseil sup\u00e9rieur de la jeunesse : AE 1.106.335.000 CP 1.126.235.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sous total des portefeuilles de programmes des institutions publiques : AE 16.304.012.000 et CP 17.592.613.563.000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total g\u00e9n\u00e9ral des d\u00e9penses pour les CP qui servent \u00e0 calculer le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 16.794.613.563.000 dinars sot au cours de 134 dinars un dollar 125,35 milliards de dollars<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.-Les recettes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Impositions de toute nature 7.610.849.673.111 DA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Recettes fiscales dont l\u2019imp\u00f4t sur le revenu 4.156.886.963.335 et l\u2019imp\u00f4t sur le capital 80.017.182.668 DA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Fiscalit\u00e9 des hydrocarbures 3.453.962.709.776 DA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Revenus des domaines de l\u2019Etat 82.200.000.000 DA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Revenus des participations financi\u00e8res de l\u2019Etat 580.000.000.000 DA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-R\u00e9mun\u00e9rations des services rendus par l\u2019Etat et les redevances z\u00e9ro<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Produits divers du budget 250.000.000.000 DA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Produits exceptionnels divers z\u00e9ro<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Fonds de concours, dons et legs 14.000.000 DA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Int\u00e9r\u00eat et produits provenant de pr\u00eats, avances et placement de l\u2019Etat z\u00e9ro<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total des recettes 8.523.063.673.111 dinars alg\u00e9riens soit au cours de 134 dinars un dollar 63,60 milliards de dollars<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En r\u00e9sum\u00e9 , le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire pour 2025 sera de 61,72 milliards de dollars( 8.271,55 milliards DA), 22,20% du PIB contre 46,04 milliards de dollars en 2024 et 30,50 milliards de dollars en 2022 au cours moyen en 2024 de de 134 dinars un dollar \u00e9tant depuis fin d\u00e9cembre 2024 au 02 janvier 2025 \u00e0 136 dinars un dollar , cette l\u00e9g\u00e8re d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation, \u00e9tant un artifice comptable pour diminuer le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire en accroissant les taxes de produits import\u00e9s et augmentant les recettes hydrocarbures converties en dinars d\u00e9valu\u00e9. Aussi, il s\u2019agit d\u2019\u00e9viter ce mythe mon\u00e9taire de se braquer uniquement sur l\u2019\u00e9quilibre de la balance commerciale afin de pr\u00e9server les r\u00e9serves de change d\u2019environ 70 milliards de dollars auquel selon les r\u00e8gles du FMI , il faut ajouter le stock d\u2019or \u00e9valu\u00e9 \u00e0 174 tonnes o\u00f9 le 02 janvier 2025 2024,en bourse, le gramme d\u2019or est cot\u00e9 \u00e0 84 dollars , l\u2019once d\u2019or \u00e0 2600 et le kg d\u2019or \u00e0 83 800 dollars donnant une valeur de 14,60 milliards de dollars , une augmentation de pr\u00e8s de 30\/% par rapport \u00e0 2021\/2022, vision statique, et non en dynamique, si on assiste \u00e0 des p\u00e9nuries ou \u00e0 des restrictions d\u2019importations qui paralysent le tissu \u00e9conomique, faute de la faiblesse de la production nationale, devant transformer cette richesse virtuelle en richesses r\u00e9elles. En Alg\u00e9rie, le taux d\u2019int\u00e9gration tant des entreprises tant publiques que priv\u00e9es alg\u00e9riennes entre 2023\/2024 ne d\u00e9passe pas 15%. \u00c9tant fondamentalement une \u00e9conomie renti\u00e8re, les exportations hors hydrocarbures sont pass\u00e9es selon le bulletin statistique trimestriel du premier trimestre 2024 de la Banque d\u2019Alg\u00e9rie de 5,98 milliards de dollars en 2022( les statistiques douani\u00e8res donnent un autre montant, 6,9 milliards de dollars),en 2023, \u00e0 5,06 milliards de dollars et pour le premier 2024, le montant des exportations hors p\u00e9trole et gaz de l\u2019Alg\u00e9rie \u00e9tait de seulement 1,06 milliard de dollars contre 1,33 milliards de dollars durant la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode de 2023, ce qui donnerait en tendance pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024, 4,24 milliards de dollars dont pour ces trois ann\u00e9es 2022\/2024 plus de 67% \u00e9tant des d\u00e9riv\u00e9es d\u2019hydrocarbures. Force est de constater un nombre impressionnant d\u2019institutions hors minist\u00e8res avec un accroissement du budget dont il conviendra d\u2019analyser l\u2019utilit\u00e9 . Et le probl\u00e8me pos\u00e9 est le suivant : ce d\u00e9ficit alimentera t-il les d\u00e9penses non cr\u00e9atrices de valeur et dans ce cas l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du processus inflationniste est in\u00e9vitable, c\u2019est une loi \u00e9conomique applicable \u00e0 tous les pays sans exception, surtout en cas de stagnation comme en 2024 ou de baisse des recettes des hydrocarbures qui servent de tampon social ou une grande fraction sera t-elle affect\u00e9e aux activit\u00e9s productives directement ou indirectement comme le recommande le PNUD dont l\u2019\u00e9ducation et la sant\u00e9 ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ademmebtoul@gmail.com<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par Abderrahmane Mebtoul Professeur des universit\u00e9s, expert international- expert comptable de l’Institut sup\u00e9rieur de gestion de Lille en France. 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