{"id":84309,"date":"2026-03-27T20:42:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T19:42:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/?p=84309"},"modified":"2026-03-27T20:42:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T19:42:25","slug":"le-blocage-dormuz-fait-trembler-les-marches-mondiaux-vers-un-baril-a-200-dollars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/index.php\/2026\/03\/27\/le-blocage-dormuz-fait-trembler-les-marches-mondiaux-vers-un-baril-a-200-dollars\/","title":{"rendered":"Le blocage d’Ormuz fait trembler les march\u00e9s mondiaux\u00a0: Vers un baril \u00e0 200 dollars\u00a0?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Le cours du Brent a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 110 dollars vendredi. Le d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz reste ferm\u00e9. Les analystes de Macquarie n’excluent plus un pic historique \u00e0 200 dollars le baril si la guerre au Moyen-Orient s’\u00e9tire jusqu’en juin. Les march\u00e9s mondiaux retiennent leur souffle.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce n’est plus un sc\u00e9nario de guerre des prix : c’est la guerre elle-m\u00eame qui dicte d\u00e9sormais les cours mondiaux des hydrocarbures. Vendredi 27 mars, le baril de Brent de la mer du Nord s’\u00e9changeait \u00e0 110,17 dollars vers 10h30 GMT, en hausse de 2 % sur la s\u00e9ance, apr\u00e8s avoir flirt\u00e9 avec les 119,50 dollars en d\u00e9but de mois. Son \u00e9quivalent am\u00e9ricain, le West Texas Intermediate (WTI), grimpait de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 \u00e0 96,46 dollars. Le moteur de cette flamb\u00e9e est unique : le blocage du d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz, voie de passage oblig\u00e9e pour environ 15 millions de barils de p\u00e9trole brut et 5 millions de produits p\u00e9troliers par jour, soit pr\u00e8s d’un cinqui\u00e8me de la consommation mondiale. La tension entre Washington et T\u00e9h\u00e9ran n’a pas trouv\u00e9 d’issue diplomatique. Le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump a certes repouss\u00e9 au 6 avril son ultimatum avant d’\u00e9ventuelles frappes sur les centrales \u00e9lectriques iraniennes \u2014 une extension qu’il a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme une \u00abdemande du gouvernement iranien\u00bb. Mais sur le terrain, rien ne se d\u00e9tend. Selon les analystes d’ING, \u00abavec les deux camps qui poursuivent leurs attaques et les \u00c9tats-Unis qui auraient renforc\u00e9 leur pr\u00e9sence militaire dans la r\u00e9gion, les craintes concernant les perturbations de l’approvisionnement restent vives\u00bb. Pour John Evans, analyste chez PVM, \u00abce qui est clair pour le march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier, c’est que le d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz ne sera pas rouvert de sit\u00f4t\u00bb. Et m\u00eame si un cessez-le-feu survenait, pr\u00e9cise-t-il, \u00ables retards accumul\u00e9s et les r\u00e9percussions sur le trafic et les dommages caus\u00e9s ne dispara\u00eetront pas rapidement\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C’est dans ce contexte d’incertitude maximale que les analystes du groupe Macquarie, cit\u00e9s par Bloomberg, ont publi\u00e9 une projection qui a secou\u00e9 les salles de march\u00e9 : le prix du baril pourrait atteindre 200 dollars si le conflit se prolonge jusqu’en juin et que le d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz demeure ferm\u00e9. Ils estiment \u00e0 40 % la probabilit\u00e9 de ce sc\u00e9nario extr\u00eame, contre 60 % pour une r\u00e9solution du conflit avant fin mars \u2014 un d\u00e9lai qui semble d\u00e9j\u00e0 compromis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La m\u00e9canique d’escalade militaire alimente ces projections. La Maison Blanche et le Pentagone envisagent, selon le Wall Street Journal et le site Axios, d’envoyer au moins 10 000 soldats suppl\u00e9mentaires dans la r\u00e9gion dans les prochains jours. Pour Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyste chez Global Risk Management, \u00abla probabilit\u00e9 d’une invasion terrestre augmente d\u00e9sormais\u00bb, rendant selon lui \u00abpeu probable que l’Iran et les \u00c9tats-Unis entament de v\u00e9ritables n\u00e9gociations\u00bb. T\u00e9h\u00e9ran a de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 menac\u00e9 d’ouvrir un \u00abnouveau front\u00bb dans le d\u00e9troit de Bab el-Mandeb, acc\u00e8s strat\u00e9gique \u00e0 la mer Rouge et au canal de Suez depuis l’Asie. Une telle escalade, avertit Rasmussen, \u00abcompliquerait les exportations de p\u00e9trole de l’Arabie saoudite, qui s’\u00e9l\u00e8vent \u00e0 4 \u00e0 5 millions de barils via la mer Rouge\u00bb \u2014 seule alternative partielle aux volumes d\u00e9j\u00e0 bloqu\u00e9s \u00e0 Ormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Face \u00e0 cette flamb\u00e9e, l’Europe s’organise en urgence. Les ministres de l’\u00c9nergie des Vingt-Sept se retrouveront mardi en visioconf\u00e9rence pour traiter de \u00abla s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de l’approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\u00bb, \u00e0 l’initiative de Chypre, qui assure la pr\u00e9sidence tournante de l’Union europ\u00e9enne. La Commission europ\u00e9enne, tout en r\u00e9p\u00e9tant qu’il n’existe \u00abpas de risque en mati\u00e8re d’approvisionnement \u00e0 ce stade\u00bb, reconna\u00eet que \u00abla principale inqui\u00e9tude porte sur la hausse des prix, qui pourrait s’inscrire dans la dur\u00e9e \u00e0 cause du conflit\u00bb. Les \u00c9tats membres r\u00e9agissent en ordre dispers\u00e9 : l’Espagne mobilise cinq milliards d’euros incluant une baisse de TVA et une remise de 30 centimes par litre \u00e0 la pompe ; l’Italie r\u00e9duit temporairement le prix des carburants de 25 centimes ; la Hongrie et la Croatie plafonnent les prix. La France, contrainte budg\u00e9tairement, se limite \u00e0 des \u00abaides cibl\u00e9es\u00bb pour la p\u00eache, l’agriculture et les transports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un baril \u00e0 200 dollars serait sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent dans l’histoire des march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers. Le record absolu remonte \u00e0 juillet 2008, avec un pic \u00e0 147 dollars, dans un contexte de sp\u00e9culation intense mais sans fermeture d’une voie maritime strat\u00e9gique. Cette fois, c’est l’anatomie m\u00eame de l’approvisionnement mondial qui est atteinte \u2014 et les march\u00e9s commencent \u00e0 en prendre la mesure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amar Malki<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le cours du Brent a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 110 dollars vendredi. Le d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz reste ferm\u00e9. Les analystes de Macquarie n’excluent plus<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":66823,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"default","_twitter_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type":"default","_pinterest_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"default","_medium_share_type":"default","_threads_share_type":"default","_google_business_share_type":"default","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[52,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-economie"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe blocage d’Ormuz fait trembler les march\u00e9s mondiaux\u00a0: Vers un baril \u00e0 200 dollars\u00a0? - La Sentinelle<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/index.php\/2026\/03\/27\/le-blocage-dormuz-fait-trembler-les-marches-mondiaux-vers-un-baril-a-200-dollars\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le blocage d’Ormuz fait trembler les march\u00e9s mondiaux\u00a0: Vers un baril \u00e0 200 dollars\u00a0? - La Sentinelle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le cours du Brent a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 110 dollars vendredi. 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