{"id":85621,"date":"2026-04-13T21:49:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T20:49:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/?p=85621"},"modified":"2026-04-13T21:49:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T20:49:16","slug":"le-cegf-table-sur-une-hausse-de-la-demande-mondiale-de-30-a-lhorizon-2055","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lasentinelle.dz\/index.php\/2026\/04\/13\/le-cegf-table-sur-une-hausse-de-la-demande-mondiale-de-30-a-lhorizon-2055\/","title":{"rendered":"Le CEGF table sur une hausse de la demande mondiale de 30% \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2055\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Le Forum des pays exportateurs de gaz (FPEG) a lanc\u00e9, depuis son si\u00e8ge \u00e0 Doha, la dixi\u00e8me \u00e9dition de son rapport phare, les Perspectives mondiales du gaz 2055 (Global Gas Outlook<\/em>, GGO), lors d’une c\u00e9r\u00e9monie de haut niveau retransmise en visioconf\u00e9rence. Cette publication, qui couvre l’ensemble du syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondial \u00e0 l’horizon 2055, intervient \u00e0 un moment charni\u00e8re : le Forum c\u00e9l\u00e8bre cette ann\u00e9e son 25e<\/sup> anniversaire, et le rapport para\u00eet dans un contexte de profonde transformation du paysage \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondial. La c\u00e9r\u00e9monie de lancement a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sid\u00e9e par le secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral du GECF, S.E. le Dr Philip Mshelbila, aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de S.E. le cheikh Dr Mishal Al-Thani, repr\u00e9sentant du Qatar au conseil ex\u00e9cutif de l’organisation. Dans son allocution d’ouverture, le Dr Mshelbila a pos\u00e9 d’embl\u00e9e le cadre analytique du rapport : \u00ab Le gaz naturel n’est pas simplement un combustible de transition, mais un composant durable du syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique futur. \u00bb Une affirmation que les donn\u00e9es projet\u00e9es dans le rapport viennent \u00e9tayer de mani\u00e8re circonstanci\u00e9e. Le repr\u00e9sentant qatari a pour sa part soulign\u00e9 que, m\u00eame dans un contexte d’incertitudes persistantes, le rapport d\u00e9montre clairement que \u00ab les mol\u00e9cules de gaz naturel demeurent indispensables \u00bb. Les projections du GGO 2055 brossent un tableau d’ensemble d’une demande \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondiale en expansion soutenue. La demande primaire d’\u00e9nergie devrait progresser de 641 exajoules en 2024 \u00e0 768 exajoules en 2055, port\u00e9e par la croissance d\u00e9mographique, le d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomique, l’urbanisation acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e et l’\u00e9lectrification croissante des usages. Dans ce contexte, la demande mondiale d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 devrait plus que doubler, passant de quelque 30 800 t\u00e9rawattheures aujourd’hui \u00e0 plus de 61 000 t\u00e9rawattheures en 2055 \u2014 une dynamique qui renforce m\u00e9caniquement le besoin en sources d’\u00e9nergie fiables, flexibles et pilotables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le gaz naturel sort grand gagnant de cette projection. Sa demande mondiale progresserait de 4 137 milliards de m\u00e8tres cubes en 2024 \u00e0 environ 5 417 milliards de m\u00e8tres cubes en 2055, soit une hausse de pr\u00e8s de 31 %. Sa part dans le mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondial grimperait de 23 % \u00e0 26 %, lui permettant de d\u00e9passer le charbon et de se rapprocher du p\u00e9trole parmi les grandes sources d’approvisionnement plan\u00e9taires. Ce sont les pays du Moyen-Orient, d’Eurasie et d’Afrique qui tireront en grande partie cette croissance de l’offre, \u00e0 condition toutefois que les investissements dans les projets de production soient maintenus \u00e0 un niveau suffisant \u2014 une d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 la continuit\u00e9 des financements que le rapport identifie comme un facteur de risque majeur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le commerce international du gaz conna\u00eetra, lui aussi, une transformation structurelle. Les \u00e9changes mondiaux devraient s’\u00e9largir de 1 211 milliards de m\u00e8tres cubes en 2024 \u00e0 environ 1 767 milliards en 2055. La part du gaz naturel liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 (GNL) dans ce commerce international devrait doubler en volume \u2014 de 406 millions de tonnes \u00e0 837 millions de tonnes \u2014 pour repr\u00e9senter environ 65 % des \u00e9changes gaziers mondiaux \u00e0 la mi-si\u00e8cle. Les pays membres du GECF renforceraient leur emprise strat\u00e9gique sur ces march\u00e9s, leur part dans la production mondiale passant de 38 % \u00e0 44 % et leur contribution au commerce international approchant la moiti\u00e9 des volumes \u00e9chang\u00e9s. Les hydrocarbures dans leur ensemble conserveraient une place pr\u00e9pond\u00e9rante, assurant environ 62 % de la demande primaire mondiale en 2055, ce qui confirme, selon le rapport, \u00ab leur importance durable pour l’accessibilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re, la fiabilit\u00e9 et la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00bb. M\u00eame dans le sc\u00e9nario dit de transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e, baptis\u00e9 \u00ab Sc\u00e9nario d’\u00e9nergie durable \u00bb, la demande mondiale de gaz atteindrait 6 127 milliards de m\u00e8tres cubes en 2055, soutenue par un d\u00e9ploiement massif des technologies de captage, utilisation et stockage du carbone (CCUS) \u00e0 hauteur de 8,9 gigatonnes \u00e9quivalent CO\u2082. Le Forum envoie ainsi un message politique clair aux d\u00e9cideurs et aux march\u00e9s : miser sur le gaz naturel, loin de contrarier la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, constitue une condition de sa r\u00e9ussite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samira Ghrib<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le Forum des pays exportateurs de gaz (FPEG) a lanc\u00e9, depuis son si\u00e8ge \u00e0 Doha, la dixi\u00e8me \u00e9dition de 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